Fortnite Pirate Token drop rate: Pirate Shop Access odds

Epic's drop-rate page lists the Pirate Token, called Pirate Shop Access, at 1 in 137,500 per chest in a normal match. That is the second-rarest chest treasure of Treasure Hunters. The full list as published:

The first three are the ones Epic boosts during Treasure Hours. The rest of the list is as reported by VICE from Epic's page.

Epic's page lists Pirate Shop Access at ×1.5 during Treasure Hours, and says these rates may be higher in future Treasure Hours. ×1.5 on 1 in 137,500 is about 1 in 91,667 per chest (137,500 ÷ 1.5). A ×2 boost would be 1 in 68,750.

Session by session:

Epic's own November 7 and November 14 event posts give the start times, the loadout and the featured Sprite, but not a multiplier. The per-session figures above come from press coverage of Epic's announcements, so treat anything marked Reported or Expected as unconfirmed until Epic says it. Dates and times are on the schedule.

These are estimates. They treat every chest as an independent roll at Epic's published rate, which is how a per-chest rate reads. Epic has not said how every special or refilled chest is handled.

To reach even odds (50%) you would need about 95,000 chests at the normal rate, or about 63,500 at ×1.5. Count your own with the chest tracker; it shows this estimate for the chests you log.

Only the math, not a promise: the boost is large in relative terms and small in absolute terms. At ×1.5 a chest goes from roughly 1 in 137,500 to 1 in 91,667. Over 1,000 chests that is 0.72% against 1.08%, a gain of about 0.36 percentage points.

What that means for you:

• The number of chests you open moves the result far more than the session does. Ten times the chests is about ten times the chance.
• If you are playing anyway, play inside a session: it is the same effort for a better rate.
• If a session costs you sleep, remember that one more session adds only a fraction of a percent. The late session starts at 9 PM ET, which is 2 AM UTC on Sunday; check your time on the Today page.
• If Epic announces a higher multiplier for a session, as reported for the second round on November 7, the gap widens, but the chance per chest stays far below 1%.

A token is a long shot in any window. Nothing on Epic's page promises a guaranteed drop.

Epic's help page lists Pirate Shop Access as the treasure that opens the Pirate Shop. VICE reports that redeeming it lets you claim every cosmetic in the Item Shop for free for 14 days. For the other boosted treasures and what each one is, see Treasure Hours rewards.